Technology

The Self-Driving Car's Long Road

Why Full Autonomy Has Proven So Much Harder Than the Industry Promised

Thomas Erikson

Robotics researcher at Carnegie Mellon University's Robotics Institute, specializing in autonomous vehicle perception and decision-making.

March 3, 2026·8 min read

The Self-Driving Car's Long Road

In 2015, Elon Musk predicted that Tesla would have fully autonomous vehicles by 2017. In 2016, Waymo's CEO said robotaxis would be available to the public by 2020. It is now 2026, and fully autonomous vehicles remain elusive. The gap between the hype and the reality reveals fundamental challenges in AI and the complexity of the real world.

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autonomous vehiclesAIroboticstransportationsafety

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